Wintering Distribution Changes in Mallards and Black Ducks

Through the use of data compiled by the Audubon Society's annual Christmas Counts, an attempt has been made to trace the distributional changes of wintering Mallards and Black Ducks in the eastern states from 1900 to the present. During this period the Black Duck has increased relative to the Mallard in few if any states (the Great Lakes region), whereas the Mallard has increased nearly everywhere else (except in the extreme northeast), particularly in the southern coastal states. Deforestation and changes in land use are suggested as probable reasons for this trend, which is not likely to be reversed. Although several rather spectacular shifts in the distributions of various American species of birds have become evident in recent years, the "colonization" of the eastern states by the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) has not been so generally recognized. The magnitude of this range extension has been great nevertheless, and the probable reasons for it have been discussed elsewhere (Johnsgard, 1959, 1961). Concomitant with the increase of the Mallard in the eastern states, the native Black Duck (Anas rubripes) has suffered a decline in numbers, and apparently for some of the same reasons as the Mallard has increased. Since this trend is not likely to be reversed in the future, it will be of interest o follow it carefully and thus possibly to predict the fate of the Black Duck. Wing (1943) became interested in the ratios of Mallards to Black Ducks throughout he eastern states before the range shift was at all apparent, and calculated state ratios for the two forms on the basis of the data provided by the annual Audubon Society Christmas counts for the forty years 1900 to, 1939. He found that the average ratios for that period (which, because of the continuously increasing number of counts, is probably typical of the situation somewhat after the midpoint of 1920) indicated that the zone of equal ratios fell in a northsouth line between Michigan and western Florida. East of this line the Black Duck was markedly dominant over the Mallard and west of it the Mallard was equally dominant. Wing's data are presented in Table I, but they are converted from simple Mallard: Black Duck ratios to the alternative method of calculating the relative percentages of each form in the combined sample. This latter means of presenting ratio data has certain statistical advantages (Hickey, 1957). Arguments supporting the use of these data as unbiased estimates of wintering Mallard and Black Duck populations have been presented elsewhere (Johnsgard, 1959), and so will not be repeated here. To test the possibility that these counts might indicate the degree to which the Mallard has moved eastward in recent years, it was de477 Johnsgard in American Midland Naturalist (October 1961) 66(2). Copyright 1961, University of Notre Dame. Used by permission.